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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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