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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
COAL EXPORT TAX: MATTER OF CONCERN FOR INDIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Since the issuance of Indonesian Mining law in 2009, miners have increased their activities in exploring , ex ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
AKR COAL FIRST EXPORT SHIPMENT OF COAL SEABORNE
PT Anugrah Karya Raya (AKR Coal) subsidiary of PT AKR Corporindo Tbk., Indonesia’s leading integrated supply chain solutions provider and larg ...
Thursday, 05 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STALLS AS TREND IS REVERSED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has halted its month-long rally, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) retreating yesterday for a second consecutive session. Industry ...
Wednesday, 04 April 12
OIL MAY JUMP TO $150PB IF IRAN ATTACKED: EXPERT - KUNA / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Prices of oil will not drop below level of $100 per barrel and may jump to $150 pb in the coming two months, according to the prominent Kuwaiti expe ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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