We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
|
|
|
Showing 4781 to 4785 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
|
| |
| |
|
