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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 30 March 12
RECOND NUMBERS SURROUNDING THE SUPRAMAX DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Last year proved to be both a record year in the number of deliveries of dry bulkers between 40,000dwt and 64,000dwt, as well as a record year in th ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
DRY BULK EDGED FURTHER UP, ON HEALTHY DEMAND FOR MOST SHIP TYPES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With capesize vessels finally reappearing in demand, the dry bulk market had an easier task of rising yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) reach ...
Thursday, 29 March 12
ADARO FY11 NET INCOME JUMPS 124% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) today announced a 124% jump in net income to US$552 million last year or US$0.017 a share. ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
CUESTA HAS RECEIVED APPLICATIONS AND FIRM BIDS IN EXCESS OF $9 MILLION FOR THE COMPANYS IPO
COALspot.com - The Directors of Cuesta Coal Limited (ASX:CQC) have announced that today it has received applications and firm bids in excess of $9 m ...
Wednesday, 28 March 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY TO COMMENCE JORC DRILLING AT ADK PROJECT
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal explorer and producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG), have today announced that the company is about to commence a drillin ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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