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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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