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Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any near future. "Temporary spikes in rates will occur throughout the year, but we expect they will be smaller and short-lived compared to previous spikes. Although world trade is projected to expand at a reasonable pace in both 2012 and 2013, the overwhelming amount of new capacity scheduled to reach the seas in 2012 and 2013 will keep dragging spot rates towards operating costs. The low rates will inevitably force more tonnage out of the market, but even if scrapping activity continues at the record high level of 2011 this will not be enough to restore balance in the market in either 2012 or 2013. If contracting activity is kept at a minimum over the next couple of years, however, there might be room for an improvement in rates come 2014" said the research in its outlook of the dry bulk market.
According to the report, one new vessel is scheduled for delivery for every three currently at sea. "By January 2012, the aggregate orderbook contained a total of 201 million dwt. With a current fleet of 611 million dwt, a new vessel is scheduled for every three vessels at sea. Most of the orderbook by far is scheduled to enter the fleet over the next two years. 69% (139 million dwt) of the orderbook is scheduled to enter the fleet in 2012. If no vessels were scrapped during 2012, this would result in fleet growth of 23% in 2012. 43% (60 million dwt) of the deliveries scheduled for 2012 are Capesize vessels and another 29% are Panamax vessels. The remainder is mainly Handymax vessels. Assuming that all vessels are delivered the Capesize fleet will grow by 24% before scrapping in 2012, the Panamax fleet will grow 27% and the Handymax and Handysize fleets will grow 19% and 16% respectively" said Danish Ship Finance.
SCRAPPING ACTIVITY
Still, on a positive note, it also predicted that scrapping activity will remain high in 2012. "With the prospects of persistently low rates for at least another year and taking the large oversupply of Dry Bulk capacity into account, we expect the current high level of scrapping will continue throughout 2012. Having analysed the age structure of the current fleet as well as the age structure of the vessels demolished in previous years, we do not find it unreasonable to assume that scrapping can go as high as 26 million dwt in 2012. This would be the equivalent of 4% of the current fleet. Obviously this estimation is subject to uncertainty, and if vessels are scrapped at an older age than previously, less tonnage will be scrapped than we estimate. However, the price of scrap metal is currently relatively high by historical standards and this may motivate shipowners to scrap relatively young vessels in 2012" said the report.
NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS - POSTPONEMENTS
In terms of cancellations, they reduced the orderbook by some 13% in 2011. "Since current market conditions are not expected to improve the financial positions of shipowners in general, we assume that cancellations will continue to curtail the orderbook in 2012 and 2013. Assuming the same cancellation ratio in 2012 and 2013 as seen in 2011, cancellations will reduce deliveries by some 17 million dwt in 2012 and by 6 million dwt in 2013. Assuming the postponement activity of 2011 will continue in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that some 38 million dwt will be postponed from 2012 into 2013 and 25 million dwt will be postponed from 2013 into 2014. This will cushion the drop in scheduled deliveries and thereby smooth out fleet growth over the next couple of years" said Danish Ship Finance.
Based on the above, the researcher concluded that the net fleet will increase by 10% or 84 million dwt during 2012 and 7% (56 million dwt) in 2013. This scenario assumes no new contracting taking place with scheduled delivery before the end of 2013.
SEABORNE TRADE VOLUMES
In terms of demand, the report noted that seaborne dry bulk trade is expected to remain strong in 2012 and 2013. Total Dry Bulk trade is expected to expand by 8% and 9% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The main driver behind the growth is once again the iron ore and coal trades, while trade in other commodities is expected to decline in 2012. China is projected to be the largest and fastest growing importer in the years ahead. Taking the current level of uncertainty in the global economy into account, trade growth may fall short of the current forecast if uncertainty transforms into an economic slowdown.
"Chinese Dry Bulk imports are expected to grow by 11% in 2012. Australia will remain the largest supplier of Dry Bulk commodities to the Chinese market with projected exports to China of 426 million dwt in 2012. However, although Australian exports to China are expected to grow by a healthy 9%, emerging markets are expected to increase their market share in 2012. Latin America and the Caribbean countries are expected to grow their exports to China by 13% mainly driven by Brazilian iron ore exports. African exports to China are projected to increase 12%. The low freight rates will continue to support imports of raw materials at the expense of domestic suppliers. This will support Chinese coal imports from Indonesia and as a result, imports from Asia are expected to rise by 11%" said the report.
DISTANCE-ADJUSTED TRADE VOLUMES SET TO INCREASE 9% IN 2012
Finally, "the longer trading distances resulting from the increase in emerging market exports to China will continue to support distance-adjusted trade volumes in 2012 and 2013. The distance-adjusted seaborne Dry Bulk trade is projected to increase by 9% in 2012 and 10% in 2013. Chinese distance-adjusted imports are expected to grow by almost 12% while Japanese demand is expected to rebound to 8% growth in 2012 and 2013 following the slowdown caused by the earthquake and tsunami of early 2011. On the other hand, European imports are projected to drop to only 3% as the continuing troubles in the sovereign debt market weigh in on the region’s economic growth" concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 April 12
TWO PERCENT OF IBP CONCESSION CONTAINS 42 MMT OF COAL
COALspot.com - 42.35 million ton of coal found in just 2% of PT Insani Bara Perkasa’s total concession area of 24,477 hectare.
Accord ...
Wednesday, 11 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL SUBDUED, RECOVERY NOT YET SEEN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market entered the new week after the past days of easter holidays in western countries in a subdued mood. The industry’s benchma ...
Monday, 09 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first week of April ended with the Baltic Dry Index falling below 950 points, before Catholic Easter, and capesizes showing a modest upturn with ...
Sunday, 08 April 12
CHARTER RATES COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was almost at same levels closing slightly lower by 0.64 pct at 928 points.
The Cape index was up by 6.73 pct closing at ...
Friday, 06 April 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall to lowest level since January 2011 this month. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in April fal ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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