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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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