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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 10 February 12
TONNAGE KEEPS ON COMING - DREWRY
Drewry Maritime Research’s latest edition of its Dry Bulk Forecaster pulls no punches in its assessment of a market that looks certain to cont ...
Friday, 10 February 12
GIVE PERMIT POWERS TO GOVERNORS: MINERS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, following clashes between mining companies and local residents, the Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) wants to tra ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
AUSTRALIA'S EPIC TO ACQUIRE 15,500 HA COAL EXPLORATION LICENCES IN EAST KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Epic Resources Limited to acquire two coal concessions in Kutai Barat regency, East Kalimantan, Indonesia.
According to company's ...
Thursday, 09 February 12
RESOURCE ALAM BUYS 28,521HA CONCESSIONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), owned by Adijanto family, today announced acquisition of 75% interest in PT Ka ...
Tuesday, 07 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET FINALLY STOPS DECLINE, POSTS FIRST RISE IN MORE THAN A MONTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
After falling to near record lows, not seen since the mid-80s the dry bulk market has finally stopped its path to "hell", with the industr ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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