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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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