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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 22 January 12
FREIGHT MARKET DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2008
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to soften almost reaching 2008 levels breaking the 1,000 point mark", said Capt. Reddy of Vistaar Sh ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
ASIAS PREMIER COMPREHENSIVE OPEN CUT MINING CONFERENCE SCHEDULED FOR FEBRUARY 2012
As the only such conference in the region for miners and service providers, IBC Asia’s Open Cut Mine Planning & Operational Excellence con ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
COAL MARKETS CELEBRATES A DECADE OF BRINGING BUYERS & SELLERS TOGETHER
In 2012, IBC Asia’s premier Coal Markets conference series – Asia’s only globally focused coal import, export and supply chain eve ...
Saturday, 21 January 12
SAMIN TAN COMPLETES BUMI PLC TAKEOVER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesian coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal Tbk (BORN), that is controlled by stellar businessm ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
SOUTHGOBI RESOURCES SELLS MORE THAN FOUR MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2011, 58% MORE THAN 2010
COALspot.com - SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) has successfully complets year 2011 on guidance in terms of coal sales and production.
...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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