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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 19 January 12
14TH VOGP MEETING IN HO CHI MINH CITY HANDS OUT LATEST UPDATES AND DEVELOPMENTS IN VIETNAM'S ENERGY INDUSTRY
Press Release: At upcoming 14th Vietnam Oil Gas Power on 27-28 Feb in Ho Chi Minh City the industry’s most influential names including Petrovi ...
Thursday, 19 January 12
DELTA DUNIA SEALS US$820 MIO CONTRACT INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ( ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
WARM WINTER ACROSS EUROPE HAS IMPACTED NEGATIVELY COAL DEMAND - BRS
With the Chinese New Year just a week away, all markets are slowing down. The drop in freight rates for all sizes has been significant over the past ...
Wednesday, 18 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET'S DRAMA CONTINUES IN START OF NEW WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A flurry of newbuilding deliveries, coupled with a slow start to the new year, a typical trend for the dry bulk market, has led the industry's benc ...
Monday, 16 January 12
BUMA MINED 2.7 MILLION TONS COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - BUMA has mined 2.7 million tons (-14.1% YoY) coal last month and removed 25.8 million bcm (-5.6% YoY) overburden, according to compan ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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