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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 31 January 12
THERE ARE MANY GOOD REASONS FOR COAL IN GERMANY - DR CIESLIK
COALspot.com - "The year 2011 was again marked by many changes on the markets and energy policies, at times in line with expectations, but at o ...
Tuesday, 31 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS FALLING FOR WORST MONTH IN YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn't manage to put a halt in its downfall, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), posting yet another fa ...
Monday, 30 January 12
CHINA'S HUNGER FOR COAL LEAVES DENT IN PENNSYLVANIA'S SUPPLY - THOMAS LESKIN
With the price of heating oil on the rise, one of Pennsylvania's greatest natural resources - coal - is in high demand, and not just locally.
Et ...
Saturday, 28 January 12
WILL FREIGHT MARKET STABILIZE FROM NEXT WEEK?
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften with BDI at 663 points down by 15.78 pct closing at 726 points and cape index was down by 5.73 pct cl ...
Friday, 27 January 12
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY NEEDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS YEAR AS WELL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The oversupply of vessels in most shipping sectors is so intense that it’s become clear to ship owners that unless they scrap as many of their ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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