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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 26 January 12
ABM INVESTAMA SEALS US$100 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Reswara Minergi Hartama, a subsidary of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM), has sealed a 2 million tons of coal export co ...
Thursday, 26 January 12
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNFALL KNOWS NO LIMITS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market’s demise seems to have no visible end, as China’s Lunar Year Holidays continue this week, thus leaving demand with n ...
Wednesday, 25 January 12
CLEAN AND CLEAR MINING PERMITS TO BE COMPLETED END OF 2012 - BISNIS.COM
Bisnis.com reported that, the government plans to announce 700 mining permits with "clean and clear" status without overlapping on other p ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
ANOTHER SEVERE DROP IN THE CAPESIZE - BRS
The lunar year celebrations and the high number of new building deliveries (more than 35 Capes so far in January as owners push 2011 deliveries into ...
Tuesday, 24 January 12
BUKIT ASAM FY11 NET PROFIT SURGES 50% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) estimated to book Rp3 trillion (approximately US$ 335,570,469) net prof ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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