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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 15 January 12
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BLEED - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets continued to bleed with BDI touching almost 1000 points , almost reaching the collapse of 2008 levels," said C ...
Saturday, 14 January 12
GOLDEN MINES TO SUPPLY 4 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner under Sinarmas Group PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DS ...
Friday, 13 January 12
DIFFICULT START OF 2012 FOR DRY BULK MARKET SEEN HARD TO CHANGE IN THE COURSE OF THE YEAR, UNLESS DEMOLITION PICKS UP
The dry bulk market has been on a freefall this week after a rocky start to the new year. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry's benc ...
Thursday, 12 January 12
DRY BULK MARKET CRASHING AT START OF THE YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept being on freefall mode yesterday, with the industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) losing a massive 5.17% on ...
Wednesday, 11 January 12
NEWBUILDING ORDERS DECLINE, AS SHIP OWNERS REALIZE OVERSUPPLY WILL "KILL" THEM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With 2012 now underway, it will be rather interesting to see how ship owners will play the "newbuilding ordering" card to their favor, as ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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