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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 04 February 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 6,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften which dropped by almost 11 pct and BDI closing at 647 points.
The drop in BDI was mainly due to dr ...
Thursday, 02 February 12
NO RELIEF YET FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although at the start of 2012 nobody can claim that the global seaborne trade has suddenly come to a halt, quite the contrary, it seems that the dry ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT - GOING DEEP TO SOAR HIGH
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port now rightfully claims as the deepest draft port in India, as it has started accepting vessels with maximum permiss ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
IN JAMBI, MOST MINING COMPANIES LACK 'CLEAR-AND-CLEAN' PERMITS - JP
More than three-quarters of the 386 mining companies in Jambi lack “clear-and-clean” certifications from the government, according to an ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
2% OF IBPS TOTAL CONCESSION AREA CONTAINS TOTAL COAL RESOURCE OF 56.1 MILLION TON
COALspot.com - PT. Britmindo, a mine consulting firm, has finalized PT. Insani Bara Perkasa (IBP) first JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) res ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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