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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 04 February 12
SUPRAMAX DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA WERE REPORTED AROUND $ 6,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The markets continued to soften which dropped by almost 11 pct and BDI closing at 647 points.
The drop in BDI was mainly due to dr ...
Thursday, 02 February 12
NO RELIEF YET FOR DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Although at the start of 2012 nobody can claim that the global seaborne trade has suddenly come to a halt, quite the contrary, it seems that the dry ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT - GOING DEEP TO SOAR HIGH
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port now rightfully claims as the deepest draft port in India, as it has started accepting vessels with maximum permiss ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
IN JAMBI, MOST MINING COMPANIES LACK 'CLEAR-AND-CLEAN' PERMITS - JP
More than three-quarters of the 386 mining companies in Jambi lack “clear-and-clean” certifications from the government, according to an ...
Wednesday, 01 February 12
2% OF IBPS TOTAL CONCESSION AREA CONTAINS TOTAL COAL RESOURCE OF 56.1 MILLION TON
COALspot.com - PT. Britmindo, a mine consulting firm, has finalized PT. Insani Bara Perkasa (IBP) first JORC (Joint Ore Reserves Committee) res ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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