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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
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Showing 4841 to 4845 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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