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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
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Showing 4841 to 4845 news of total 6871 |
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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