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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 22 February 12
RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN SPARKS SMELTER BUILDING BOOM IN INDONESIA ANTARA / THE JAKARTA GLOBE
Antara / The Jakarta Globe reported that, as the government gears up to ban all exports of unprocessed commodities, Indonesia will see 12 new ...
Tuesday, 21 February 12
THREAT ISSUED ON MINERAL FIRMS AS GOVT PLANS EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading english news papaer in Indonesia reported that, the government has given mineral producers three months to subm ...
Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to ...
Monday, 20 February 12
JATENERGY SECURES FIRST 8000-TONNE COAL SALES CONTRACT FOR JONGKANG MINES
8000-tonne contract with Singaporean buyer signed for March delivery
50% down payment due in five working days
Production continues at both Jongka ...
Monday, 20 February 12
DIAN SWASTATIKA ACQUIRES ANDALAN LESTARI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), controlled by Fuganto Widjaja, son of Indra Widjaja, reported a 99.83% takeove ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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