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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 March 12
BUKIT ASAM TARGETS EUROPEAN INVESTORS
COALspot.com - PT. Bukit Asam (persero) Tbk, Indonesian state owned coal miner is planning to conduct road show in Europe next week to target at Eur ...
Thursday, 01 March 12
INDO-INDIA, LARGE ECO SUPRA CAN FETCH CLOSE TO USD 9K DOP N.CHINA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic Handysize market did not see any signs for recovery this week. It is still a major lack of spot cargoes and an oversupply of pro ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
69 MINERS AGREE TO RENEGOTIATE CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the leading English news papaer in Indonesia reported that, as many as 60 coal contracts-of-work (PKP2B) and nine non-coal ...
Wednesday, 29 February 12
PUTTING COAL GASIFICATION TO WORK
Clifford Reese of the SSOE Group looks at practical solutions for district energy leaders who wish to implement clean coal technology.
Coal fuels ...
Monday, 27 February 12
COAL MINING PROFITS TOO HIGH, SAYS GOVT - TEMPO INTERACTIVE
Tempo Interactive reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Deputy Minister of Indonesia Widjajono Partowidagdo has criticized coal-mining compani ...
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Showing 4831 to 4835 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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