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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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