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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 20 February 12
COAL BOOM AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERN - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The dawn of the 21st century has seen a shift in the world's commercial balance of power, with the dominance of the US, Europe and J ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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