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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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