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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 February 12
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA DROPS 39.76 PERCENT IN JANUARY 2012
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 28.21* mln mt of coal in January 2012, slightly lower than its December 2011 ...
Monday, 27 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The pessimism in the dry market persists with the Baltic Dry Index still trying to find a steady pace of growth and average time charter earnings fo ...
Sunday, 26 February 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA IS LIKELY TO BE FIRM FOR NEXT 2/3 WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – “There was not much change in the BDI and other indices this week except for the Panamax which was down by 11.91 pc ...
Friday, 24 February 12
DRY BULK MARKET POSTS FIRST REBOUND IN A WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As was expected since mid-week, the dry bulk market's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has managed to put a stop in a 6-day losing rally, endi ...
Thursday, 23 February 12
2.5 PANAMAX VESSELS PER AVAILABLE CARGO FOR MARCH DATES - FEARN BULK
Handy
Another depressing week for Supras in both basins. Lack of fresh business and over-supply of tonnage in the Atlantic pushed rates south. Cont ...
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Showing 4836 to 4840 news of total 6871 |
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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