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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
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Showing 4851 to 4855 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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