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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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