We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
|
|
|
Showing 4851 to 4855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
|
| |
| |
|
