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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOME RESOURCE TITANS NOT THRILLED WITH INDONESIAN EXPORT BAN - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, local representatives of major business associations in East Kalimantan have protested a government regulation that ...
Monday, 05 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
An air of optimism poured in the market this week for dry bulk shippers with the Baltic Dry Index recording daily gains during the end of February b ...
Sunday, 04 March 12
SE ASIA WAS FIRM FOR TRIPS TO INDIA AND CHINA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up and generally market was firm.
The BDI was up by 7.38 pct closing at 771 po ...
Friday, 02 March 12
DJMBP HAS ANNOUNCED SECOND BATCH OF CLEAR N CLEAN CERTIFIED MINERS
COALspot.com - The Directorate general of mineral & coal of Indonesia has announced second batch of companies who have passed IUP Clear and Clea ...
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Showing 4826 to 4830 news of total 6871 |
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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