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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
3rd Mozambique Coal Conference
2-4 July 2012 | Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre , Maputo, Mozambique
http://www.immevents.com/mo ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk c ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
BUKIT ASAM EYES 39% RISE IN COAL SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is scouting a 39% increase in coal sales volume to 18.66 million tons this year from last year with ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
PETROSEA SEALS US$188 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk has secured a US$188 million additional contract from its affiliated firm PT S ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
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