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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 09 March 12
SHIP OWNERS LOOKING TO CHINA FOR REVIVAL, WHILE THEY KEEP SELLING OLD SHIPS FOR SCRAP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With China’s economic policy plan for the future on every ship owner’s mind, at least those involved in the dry bulk industry, the lates ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
INDONESIA'S COAL SECTOR CAN BENEFIT FROM CLEARER REGULATIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says Indonesia's coal mining sector should continue to see strong growth prospects but can benefit from clearer and more predictable ...
Thursday, 08 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE; CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD INCREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept on rising back to healthier levels yesterday, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the industry’s benchmark, marking its 8 ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE GAINS FOR SECOND MONTH
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly coal reference price for sales in March by 1.15 percent, the second increase since February.
The Mini ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
INDONESIA TO LIMIT FOREIGN OWNERSHIP IN MINES TO 49 PERCENT WITHIN 10 YEARS OF PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - Foreign holders of mining licenses in Indonesia have to divert 51% of their stakes to Indonesian government or domestic entitie ...
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Showing 4816 to 4820 news of total 6871 |
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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