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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 12 March 12
DELTA DUNIA 1M OVERBURDEN DROPS 3.1% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Indonesia's second largest coal mining contractor PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) reported a 25 million bank ...
Monday, 12 March 12
DRY BULK RATES WILL REMAIN LOW IN 2012 SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its annual shipping survey Danish Ship Finance said that the current outlook for the Dry Bulk market seems unlikely to foster higher rates in any ...
Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for ...
Sunday, 11 March 12
FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FIRM- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week saw another upward trend with all indices up except for the Cape index.
The BDI was up by 6.87 pct closing at 824 points ...
Friday, 09 March 12
MINING IN INDONESIA: RESTRICTION ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Recently Govt has passed regulation instructing foreign mining companies to reduce their ownership stake.
The regulation known as ...
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Showing 4811 to 4815 news of total 6871 |
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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