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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 March 12
RESOURCE ALAM FY11 PROFIT UP 171% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) reported a 171.16% jump in net profit last year on the back ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
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Showing 4806 to 4810 news of total 6871 |
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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