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Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeats itself? 25 years ago Daisy's (the bride) parents were putting her to bed with a dummy. 25 years later they're doing exactly the same thing". Luckily, almost any joke gets a laugh at a wedding. But, as the English proverb says, "many a truth is spoken in jest". Historic Developments. Shipping today does not have much to joke about. 2012 opened with weakening freight rates, and the Clarksea index ended January at $8,585/day, the lowest since the index started in 1990. But the market has dipped to similar levels three other times. The first was in May/June 1992 when it bottomed out at $8700/ day. The second was April 1999 when it fell to $8732/day and the third when it slumped to $8,698/day in January 2002. Does this mean the market has hit bottom?
Repeating History Hopefully?
Let’s take a look at what happened after the market bottomed out on the last three occasions. To do this we track the Clarksea Index during the 12 months before and after the trough.
Trough 1 bottomed at $8717/day in June 1992. Over the next 12 months it recovered by 27% to $11,100 a day, not a boom, but a worthwhile improvement. Trough 2 bottomed out at $8,732/ day. The recovery was gradual at first, edging up $10,000/day over six months. Then the market took off and by April 2000 the index was up to $14,600/day, a 67% increase. Finally Trough 3, which bottomed out at $8,698/day in January 2002, followed a similar recovery path to the previous cycle, edging up to $16,300 a day by January 2003.
The Next Cycle – A Dummy?
Turning to Trough 4, the last 12 months followed a similar pattern to Troughs 1&2. A year ago the Clarksea index was $11,161/day, and it edged down to $8,585/day last month. But where does it go from here? History suggests that it should improve by 25% to 66% over the next 12 months. But, unfortunately, market cycles are driven by fundamentals, not history. During the 12 months following the last three troughs, seaborne trade grew by 5- 6% per annum. This year, we think 4% growth would be a pretty good outcome. Admittedly that is not a very significant difference. But on the supply-side the difference is substantial. At the trough of the last three cycles shipbuilding deliveries were 3-6% of the world fleet. Currently deliveries are running at 11% of the world fleet.
Honeymoon Over?
So there you have it. The history of the last three cycles suggests an improvement in the Clarksea Index over the next 12 months, but the fundamentals tell a different story. The big question is what to do about it? Our “best man’s” advice is this. If you are put to bed with a dummy, there’s only one thing you can do. Make the most of it. Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 18 March 12
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT IN 2011 ROSE 54% TO US$ 339.56 MILLION
COALspot.com - Company revenue for the period January - December 2011 amounting to Rp 10.6 trillion (approximately US$ 1,164,835,164.84) recorded an ...
Saturday, 17 March 12
THE FREIGHT RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA REMAINED FIRM - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm and all segments were up except for Cape Index which was down by 2.46 pct closing at 1,466 points.
...
Saturday, 17 March 12
INDIAN GOVT FINALIZES DRAFT BILL FOR COAL REGULATOR - PTI
The coal sector would soon get a regulator as the government has finalised a draft bill for the purpose, Coal Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal said Wedne ...
Friday, 16 March 12
THE PACIFIC MARKET IS FIRMING UP - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
A slightly positive trend was seen last week in the Atlantic. Skaw-Passero deliveries fixed around USD 3k to US Gulf, while US Gulf deliveres ...
Thursday, 15 March 12
RAINS AVERAGE SELLING PRICE OF COAL WENT UP BY 22 % IN 2011
COALspot.com - PT. Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk, an Indonesian CCoW (3rd Generation) holder reported Wednesday a 171 percent increase in net profits ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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