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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 25 November 11
DISPUTE BETWEEN GIANT MINING FIRMS ENDS IN LAHAT - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, prolonged dispute taking place in the South Sumatra regency of Lahat and involving two giant mining companies PT Buk ...
Friday, 25 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSING STEAM, FAST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It’s been a week of falls for the dry bulk market this one, leaving ship owners with a sour taste in their mouths, as evidence of a recovery i ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
INDONESIA/INDIA SPMX TC AROUND $ 7/8K AND AROUND $ 12/13.00 PMTS ON VOYAGE BASIS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Last week ended on a positive note in the Atlantic however the activity levels are somewhat reduced. Owners are asking in excess of USD ...
Thursday, 24 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING STEAM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was lower once again on Wednesday, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session down by 1. ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
NTPC TO BUY 2 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL FOR ITS FOUR PLANTS
COALspot.com - NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government of India, the largest thermal power generati ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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