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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 28 November 11
CITING CONTRACTS, MINING FIRMS ARE NOT PAYING ROYALTIES UNDER LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, when the 2009 Law on Minerals and Coal was endorsed, hopes that Indonesia could maximize its revenue from the minera ...
Monday, 28 November 11
NEW ENVIRONMENTAL MARINE REGULATIONS TO IMPACT SHIPPING IN 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
August of next year will see some major changes for marine navigation. It’s when the North American ECA will come into force, introducing a 1% ...
Sunday, 27 November 11
INDIA'S KPCL TO IMPORT 50 MMT OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
COALspot.com - Karnataka Power Corporation Limited (KPCL) will buy 5 million metric tonnes of coal annually for 10 years starting from 2015.
In a ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
INDIAN PORTS ARE BECOME COAL STOCKPILES..!!
COALspot.com - The Indian coal stocks and power tariff situation is the hot topic among the world coal producers as well as Indian coal importers.&n ...
Saturday, 26 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market were down probably with the sentiments of global financial markets and all segments were down.
The BDI was up down by 4 ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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