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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 November 11
ABM INVESTAMA SETS IPO AT RP 3,750
Insider Stories reported that, Integrated energy company PT ABM Investama Tbk has determined the IPO price at Rp3,750 (approximately US$ 0.415) per ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
A SURPRISINGLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS
Positive gains for most of the segments this week, the exception being the Handysizes. Overall the BDI ended the week at 1,895 points (+3.3% week-on ...
Tuesday, 22 November 11
APPETITE FOR DRY BULK VESSELS SLOWS DOWN AT THE START OF THE WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was down at the beginning of the week, as demand for Capesize vessels was particularly low. The industry’s benchmark, the ...
Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight ...
Sunday, 20 November 11
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to move up with all sectors gaining except for handy size.
The BDI was up by 3.26 pct and closed at 1895 poin ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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