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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 01 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET RISES TO NEW HEIGHTS ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept on rising this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) climbing to 1,846 points on Wednes ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INTO CHINA, THE ACTIVITY WAS SLOW - BRS
Capesize
The Capesize market in Atlantic stayed pretty firm last week with transatlantic rounds being fixed in the high twenties. Sentiment was les ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE OF INDONESIA COLLAPSED AT KUKAR, EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - A suspension bridge in Indonesia’s east Kalimantan province over the Mahakam river collapsed on Saturday, killing at least elev ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
BUKIT ASAM SCOUTS RP3 TRILLION PROFIT - INSIDER STORIES
The state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) expects to post a Rp3 trillion net income this year, reaching its target which is 50% above ...
Tuesday, 29 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET BEGINS WEEK ON HIGHER NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Contrary to what had been the case during the past few weeks, this one began on a high note for the dry bulk market, with the Capesize sector pullin ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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