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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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