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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 30 September 11
INDIAN IRON ORE MARKET GETTING ACTIVE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its strong trend with fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels open US Gulf fixed tick above US$ 27k back to t ...
Friday, 30 September 11
KRISHNAPATNAM PORT WINS GLOBAL PORT & COAL PORT OF THE YEAR AWARDS
COALspot.com - Krishnapatnam Port, a dynamic new generation world class port located in the East Coast of India has been adjudged the winner in the ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
INDONESIA'S MINERS FACE AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE - RUPERT WALKER
An evolving regulatory framework for the country's minerals industry could threaten its profitability and stifle investment.
The five-year surge ...
Thursday, 29 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS MID-WEEK, FURTHER DROP EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ON CHINA HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market, as reflected by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreated by 0.36% yesterday reaching 1,920 points, with the Capesize segment suffer ...
Wednesday, 28 September 11
ATLAS RESOURCES TO SELL 25% STAKE IN IPO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal producer PT Atlas Resources Tbk, that is controlled by Indonesian businessman Andre Abdi, plans to sell 783.33 m ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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