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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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