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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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