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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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