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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 04 October 11
INDONESIA RAISES COAL BENCHMARK (HBA) FOR FIRST TIME IN 4 MONTHS
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly reference price for sales in October by 2.56 percent, the first increase since June.
The Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 04 October 11
COAL MINING GROUP WANTS EXPORT TAX, NOT EXCISE - JG
One of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, The Jakarta Globe reported that, the government shall reimpose a duty on coal exports, classifyi ...
Sunday, 02 October 11
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS PICKED UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI dropped by 1 pct and Cape index dropped by 6 pct closing at 1,899 points and 3,136 points respectively. However all other seg ...
Saturday, 01 October 11
2012 TO BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING YEAR - CEO, REMI MARITIME
Shipowners are facing another challenging year in 2012 said Mr. Leonidas Polemis CEO of Remi Maritime Corporation, urging caution towards operating ...
Friday, 30 September 11
MINING BILL CLEARED, FIRMS TO SHARE 26% PROFITS WITH LOCALS - NDTV
NDTV reported that, The Union Cabinet cleared the draft mining bill aimed at regulating mining activities Friday. The bill proposes a profit-sharing ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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