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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 23 September 11
UT TO PRODUCE 7 MMT OF COAL BY 2012
PT United Tractors Tbk is targeting a 7 million tons of coal production next year, a 55.55% increase from 4.5 millions targeted this year, said Pres ...
Friday, 23 September 11
RECORD RECYCLING ACTIVITY STIRS OPTIMISM IN DRY BULK SAYS BIMCOS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected at the start of the year, dry bulk ship owners were expected to flock scrapyards around the world, in order to take advantage of attract ...
Friday, 23 September 11
PANAMAX EXPERIENCED A SOFTENING IN RATES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Still a good boost of fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels in Black Sea with GOA clearance and Baltic positions are fetching tick abov ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA FALL, CHINA BUYS MORE
COALspot.com - Indian coal imports from Indonesia fall to below 6 million tons in August, and this fall was continuing last few months. Ho ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
2ND ANNUAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
2nd Annual Shale Gas Summit 31 October – 3 November 2011 JW Marriott Hotel, Hong Kong
According to a recent EI ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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