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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 27 September 11
A STRONG REBOUND FOR THE CAPE MARKET - BRS
A strong rebound for the Cape market, as cargoes continued to flow into the market and tonnage remained tight in the Atlantic, according to Barry Ro ...
Tuesday, 27 September 11
INTRACO SEALS US$25.3 MIO ORDER - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Heavy equipment distributor PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) obtained a US$25.3 million order on hand of heavy equipments ...
Sunday, 25 September 11
THE CHARTER RATES FOR INDONESIA TO INDIA WAS FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market moved up sharply with the cape Index up by 11 pct pushing the BDI by almost 6 pct and closing at 1,920 point ...
Saturday, 24 September 11
GOVT PLANS TO RENEGOTIATE ALL CONTRACTS INCLUDING FREEPORT - JP
The Jakarta Post reported that, the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has confirmed plans to renegotiate all mining contracts including those wi ...
Friday, 23 September 11
ICMA TO BUILD UPGRADE FACILITIES TO ANTICIPATE BAN ON LOW-GRADE COAL EXPORT BY 2014
COALspot.com - January to August of this year, Indonesia’s coal production had already reached 235 million tons. Earlier estimates had targete ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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