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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 10 October 11
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TO BE THE NEW PIRACY HOTSPOT FOR THIS YEAR SAYS MARITIME SECURITY EXPERT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Mozambique Channel, as well as the entrance to the Persian Gulf, are expected to become some of the new pirate hotspots for piracy, says Richard ...
Sunday, 09 October 11
FREIGHT MARKET ENDED WITH A POSITIVE DIRECTION - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market ended with a positive note with all the segments up except for handy size. The biggest gainer was Panamax index up by 11 p ...
Saturday, 08 October 11
INDONESIAN MINER PLANS $167M IPO TO FUEL SUMATRA COAL BOOM - JG
The Jakarta Globe reported that, coal miner Atlas Resources aims to raise as much as Rp 1.5 trillion ($167 million) in an initial public offering to ...
Friday, 07 October 11
MINING REGULATIONS , OBSTACLES AND GROWTH : INDIA VS INDONESIA - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - The Govt of India has passed long pending Mines & Minerals (Regulation and Development) Bill, 2011, which seeks to replace ...
Friday, 07 October 11
$100M FOR EXPANSION INTO KALIMANTAN MINING: AKR
The Jakarta Globe, one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia reported that, AKR Corporindo, a fuel and chemical distributor, has set aside ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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