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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 12 October 11
INDONESIAS COAL RUSH - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Last winter, the Chinese government mobilized thousands of soldiers and reservists of the People’s Liberation Army to the port ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE - A SURPRISE JUMP IN RATES - BRS
There was a surge across all sizes last week, resulting in the BDI gaining 101 points to end the week at 2,000 points (+5.3%). The BCI reached 3,218 ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the se ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
GLENCORE, SUITOR FOR BUMI PLC? - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, the largest commodities trader in the world, Glencore International Plc, is considering an opportunity to acquire a m ...
Tuesday, 11 October 11
RENUKA COALINDO BUYS JAMBI COAL
PT Renuka Coalindo Tbk, formerly PT Allbond Makmur Usaha Tbk plans to acquire PT Jambi Prima Coal holder of mining concession in Pauh, Sa ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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