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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Saturday, 15 October 11
BUNKER PRICES AND DEMANDS PUSHED FREIGHT RATES UP - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market continued to be firm with all segments moving up with biggest gain in Handy size segment up by 15 pct. The BDI was u ...
Saturday, 15 October 11
BENGAL COAL IMPORT TEST - THE TELEGRAPH
The Telegraph reported that, the power position in Bengal improved today but alarm bells are ringing over imported coal stocks that are running out ...
Friday, 14 October 11
CAPE DERIVATIVES MARKET HAS NOT REFLECTED OWNERS EXPECTATIONS' - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its upward trend, with fresh cargo entering the market. Skaw Passero to US Gulf climbed US$ 1500 from la ...
Friday, 14 October 11
ADARO BUYS SERVO MEDA FOR RP200 BIO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) announced that its subsidiary PT Alam Tri Abadi (ATI), acquired 35% stake in PT Serv ...
Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edg ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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