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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
INDONESIAN PRESIDENT APPOINTS JERO WACIK AS NEW MINISTER OF ENERGY & MINERAL RESOURCES
COALspot.com - Jero Wacik has been appointed as minister of energy and mineral resources of Indonesia replacing Darwin Saleh and Prof. Widjajono Par ...
Tuesday, 18 October 11
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS PRODUCED 3.0 MILLION TONS OF COAL LAST MONTH
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur, wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), Delta Dunia Makmur has removed 1.4 million bcm ...
Monday, 17 October 11
KOWEPO TO BUY 260,000 MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - KOWEPO has issued a spot tender for 260,000MT of minimum 5,600kcal/kg NAR Bituminous Coal.
The tender document also mentioned tha ...
Monday, 17 October 11
CAPESIZE SHIPPING COSTS CLIMB TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON ORE IMPORTS
The cost to hire capesize vessels climbed to a 10-month high as rising imports of iron ore to China boosted demand for the ships.Monthly iron-ore sh ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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