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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzi ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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