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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 24 October 11
CAPESIZE RENTAL RATES RISE FOR THIRD DAY AS MORE SHIPS HIRED - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Rates to hire capesize vessels advanced for a third day on signs of increased demand to transport iron ore, used to make steel.Daily rates for the s ...
Sunday, 23 October 11
CHINA LOOKING TO RESELL INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES - BARCLAYS
Commodity Online reported that, Anecdotal evidence has suggested that China is even looking to resell Indonesian cargoes back into the seaborne coal ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
THE SHORT-PERIOD RATES FOR PANAMAX REMAINED FIRM - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - "The market seemed to slow down a bit this week, and all sectors were down by about One to five percent", said Capt. Reddy, ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
WILL THE PROPOSED 26 PERCENT PROFIT SHARING CLAUSE IN THE MINING BILL SPEED UP THE PRODUCTION OR SCARE AWAY INVESTORS? - DIPESH DIPU
A draft law has been approved by a ministerial panel headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee of India which, if passed by the Cabinet, will make ...
Saturday, 22 October 11
INDONESIA'S GOLDEN ENERGY SLASHES ITS IPO PRICE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Golden Energy Mines, a coal mining company affiliated with Sinar Mas Group, lowered its target in an initial public ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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