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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 26 October 11
PWCS GLOBAL SHIPPING BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS: RECOVERY IN 2010 BUT GREAT UNCERTAINLY FOR 2011
The recovery of global trade in 2010 to the same levels as 2008 led to an improvement in the overall performance of shipping companies in 2010 compa ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
INDIAN MARKET WAS REMAINED TIGHT THE WHOLE LAST WEEK - BRS
The market once more seems to be at a crossroads. The indices last week remained fairly stable (except for the Panamax sector), ending the week as f ...
Tuesday, 25 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, ANALYSTS LOOKING FOR ADDED PRESSURE ON THE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was unchanged on Monday, with the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ending the session at 2,153 points, exa ...
Monday, 24 October 11
NEW HEAD OF INDONESIA'S MINING MINISTRY GETS RAKED OVER THE COALS - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Following Indonesia’s presidential cabinet shakeup last week, many are questioning the qualifications of Energy and Mineral Res ...
Monday, 24 October 11
CHINA QINHUANGDAO COAL PRICE RISES TO HIGHEST IN THREE YEARS - BUSINESSWEEK
Business week reported that, China’s power-station coal price rose to the highest level in three years as power stations and central heating p ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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