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Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will moderate not because of a slowdown in actual coal utilization domestically, but because of key developments on the domestic supplies and internal transportation front leading to lesser requirement for imported coal. Domestic production growth is expected to remain robust catching up with demand while sizeable advances on the railing front are likely to alleviate some of the current problems in allocating coal to the South Eastern consuming regions.
In 2012, the Chinese domestic market appears to be well balanced, although and although we are not ruling out a complete alleviation of all the transportation bottlenecks; we do see a situation developing over the next two to three years where the 20 to 30% transportation cost premium attached to the final delivery of domestic coal is likely to fade away. Further on the demand side, structurally as well, the relationship between the coal mining sector and the power utilities in China is set to change as well as improve further with the roll out of the so called ''coal power bases'', 13 of them located in the northern and western region will mean power is generated close to where the mines themselves are located. And the power will be carried via high voltage transmission lines to the high density consuming regions in the southern and eastern part of the country.
Essentially meaning that power itself will be transported rather than the current flow of coal being transported. Which would further ease pressure on rail capacity along with the new capacity being added. Further the completion of the consolidation of mines would mean that the smaller mines will not be disadvantaged over competition amongst its peers while bidding for using the rail capacity. Which we further think will help reduce the transportation costs associated with the price of domestic coal delivered to the utilities. Overall in number terms, our 2012 projection is for imports to remain relatively flat y/y (up 1%) at 95mt, after falling more than 10% in 2011. Though import forecasts are flat, overall Chinese coal demand is expected to grow strongly in 2012-15, with a draft of the 12th five year plan published in June indicating that about 300GW of new additions of coal-fired plants are planned in the next five years,(which is slightly higher than the 280GW installed from 2005-10). Interestingly more than 60% of the 290GW of coal plants due online will be found in the large coal-producing bases (where the close to 100 mt per coal-power base (13 of them)are scheduled to be formed).
Overall, over the next five years though both demand as well as domestic supply are likely to grow strongly with a sort of self sufficiency being created, the timeline over this period is of great interest. With supply likely to come online in bulk in two to three years while demand will increase over the five year period in a step by step manner, possibly creating a period in the future where supplies would comfortably meet demand, but as demand builds up following the bulk entry of supplies, then we would once again see China's appetite for imported coal building again, but this should likely happen only in the long term.
India
The Indian market continues to consume on a structural deficit, and we expect Indian imports to rise by 18% to about 108 mt, following the 19% y/y growth seen this year. The Coal Minister has suggested that India could be importing about 250mt of coal per year by 2015, which would be more than double this year’s import level. India’s domestic market production growth has been slowed by uncertainty regarding environmental regulations impacting land acquisition as well as a lack of infrastructure to transport coal out of mines, leading to a build-up of pithead stocks. Further though we see a lot of projects in the pipeline for expanding domestic supplies, their start dates are being pushed forward given the time it takes to get forest clearance as well as environmental clearance (taking years on average). Adding to the woes of the mining industry is the new bill passed which requires coal miners to share 26% of profits with their local communities. We expect Indian demand growth for imported coal to grow healthily over the 2012 period and beyond.
Global
For 2012, the global coal supply chain is looking a lot healthier, barring further weather related supply disruptions we could see benchmark coal prices to ease by 5% on average next year. For 2011, we expect API2 to average $123/t, API4 to average $119/t, Newcastle to average $125/t. For 2012, we expect API to average $115/t, API4 to average $111/t and Newcastle to average $120/t.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 28 October 11
RISING COAL PRICES TO WORSEN CHINA'S WINTER POWER CRUNCH - CRI ENGLISH
CRI English reported that, the rising price of coal is fueling concerns about a power crunch set to plague China this winter, analysts said.
The ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
CAPESIZE REACHING NEW HIGHS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Pacific market has mixed sentiments with tonnages fixed at firm levels and some tonnages in feast failing on subs.For indo-india, large eco ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES DOWN AS CHINAS IRON ORE DEMAND LOSES GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A plunge in Chinese iron ore demand, as a result of high steel inventories and a bleak outlook regarding steel prices, has prompted the dry bulk mar ...
Thursday, 27 October 11
BUKIT ASAM 3Q PROFIT SURGES 66.91%
Insider Stories reported that, the state-controlled coal miner PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) experienced a 66.91% increase in its net profit during a per ...
Wednesday, 26 October 11
MOODYS SEES MORE GROWTH FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s coal mining industry looks set to grow despite an uncertain global economic outlook, according to ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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