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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Friday, 19 August 11
AUSTRALIAS' ATH TO ACQUIRE 60% OF APUAH COAL MINE IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Australian listed company, Atech Holdings Limited (ATH) has entered into a conditional binding term sheet to acquire 60 percent stake ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIA IMPORTS LESS INDONESIAN COAL THAN CHINA IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesia shipped 31.30 Million tons of coal in July 2011, up by 10.69 percent compared to June's export of about 28.27 ...
Thursday, 18 August 11
MARUBENI ACQUIRED 42.86% OF YTL JAWA POWER
COALspot.com - Marubeni Corporation (Marubeni) has completed the acquisition of 42.86 percent of the shares of YTL Jawa Power Holdings BV from YTL P ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
CME LAUNCHES ARGUS COKING COAL SWAP FUTURES
COALspot.com - Argus media reported that, leading exchange CME Group will list an Australian coking coal swap futures contract for trading on the Ny ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
TAVESCO KILLARA ENERGY TO ACQUIRE COAL CONCESSIONS IN EAST KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Killara Resources Limited, an Australian listed company has formed PT Tavesco Killara Energy (TKE), a joint company with PT Tavesco I ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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