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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Tuesday, 23 August 11
COAL DEMAND IS REMAINED STRONG IN SPITE OF CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY - BUMI
COALspot.com - Indonesia's largest coal producer, PT Bumi Resources, Tbk (BUMI)'s sales revenue has increased to US$1.79 billion (compared with US ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
PENRHYN COAL USING EVERGREEN ENERGYS COAL UPGRADING PROCESS
Evergreen Energy Inc has announced the successful testing results of the initial batches of Penrhyn coal using Evergreen Energy’s coal upgradi ...
Tuesday, 23 August 11
A SHARP INCREASE IN THE BDI - BRS
A sharp increase in the BDI this week, driven by the rise in Capesize rates. Overall the BDI was up 13.5% to 1,462 points on the back of a 20% surge ...
Monday, 22 August 11
INDONESIA TO BAN BELOW 5700 KCAL/KG COAL FOR EXPORT
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia is in the process of drafting a regulation which is requiring mine owners ...
Monday, 22 August 11
JATENERGY AGREED TO FORM JV WITH AN INDONESIAN COAL MINING COMPANY
COALspot.com - Australian’s listed company, Jatenergy Limited has entered conditional agreement to form joint venture with Indonesia’s c ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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