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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Wednesday, 17 August 11
BUMI'S H1 UNDERLYING OPERATING PROFIT $62 MILLION
COALspot.com - Bumi PLC , posted underlying first-half operating profit of $62 million and production at PT Bumi Resources and PT Berau increased to ...
Wednesday, 17 August 11
SHIP OWNERS COULD FACE PAIN ON THE BACK OF GLOOMY ECONOMYS PREDICTIONS - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest market turmoil, coupled with the renewed risk of a global recession could very well signal more troubled times for ship owners of all shi ...
Tuesday, 16 August 11
CHALLENGER ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH PELANGI KERTANEGARA TO ACQUIRE 100% STAKE
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiary, P.T. Bestindo Energy, has exercised its option to purchase an a ...
Monday, 15 August 11
ADARO ENERGYS NET INCOME MORE THAN DOUBLES IN FIRST HALF 2011
COALspot.com - Indonesian’s second largest coal producer, Adaro Energy, booked net profit US$ 268 million in the first half 2011, rose two-fol ...
Monday, 15 August 11
INDIAS MALABAR CEMENTS SEEK TO IMPORT 40,000 TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Malabar Cements Ltd., India's Keralaa government owned cement factory is seeking to import 40K metric tons of non-coking coal throug ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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