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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Monday, 22 August 11
NTPC TO IMPORT 16 MILLION TON OF COAL TO BRIDGE THE GAP
COALspot.com - NTPC to import 16 million tons of imported coal, which is equivalent to 23-24 million tons of Indian coal to bridge the gap.
" ...
Monday, 22 August 11
MACRO ECONOMICS - PETER SAND BIMCO / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The US is jeopardising the global recovery as job creation remains top challenge across the board.
Global economy: While growth in most emerging ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
SUPRAMAX AVAILABILITY WAS TIGHT DUE TO UPCOMING RAMADAN HOLIDAYS
COALspot.com - The financial markets have been in turmoil with all major stock exchanges down and uncertainty prevails. However the shipping market ...
Sunday, 21 August 11
TUAH TURANGGA ACQUIRES DUTA NURCAHYA
Coal miner PT Tuah Turangga Agung, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) via PT Pamapersada Nusantara), has agreed to acquire 6 ...
Friday, 19 August 11
INDIAS CICTL HAS ACHIEVED ONE MILLION TONS OF DISCHARGE
COALspot.com - Chettinad International Coal Terminal (CICTL) in Ennore port, a state of the art mechanized coal terminal, which was inaugurated on 28t ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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