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Thursday, 18 August 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED LOW GRADE COAL EXPORT BAN WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INDIA - MISWIN MAHESH
 COALspot.com - The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5100 kcal/kg (on adb basis) in value. As of now Indonesia is not producing much coal containing below 5100 GAD coal. But according to industry, by 2014, the total production of below 5100 GAD coal could reach up to 10 – 20 million per annum.
Indonesia coal export ban
“We do not see a significant impact from the loss of low grade Indonesian volumes”, said Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
These volumes have been preferred by Indian consumers increasingly over this year given its price advantage over the high spec variety of coal; this would just mean that more of the high spec coal will be drawn in by end users, he futher added.
India will have to start importing higher grade coal at the prices that prevail in 2013 (and we expect these to come from South Africa and Australia). Major supply centres are shaping up well to provide future supplies; example SUEK in Russia is expanding its Muchka Bay terminal at Vanino, which is expected to become the largest coal port in Russia in order to boost Russia’s exports to the Pacific Basin.
SUEK is investing heavily in this terminal and its capacity will be increased to 12mt/yr. Further supply ramp ups from Russia expected from Vanino as Mechel is also completing the construction of the rail line connection the national railway network to the Elga deposit.
Production is expected to ramp up to about 25mt/yr over the next decade. We don't think the Russian governments export duty stance on SS coal will have a significant impact on its exports, and given that Colombian supplies are increasingly finding their way into Europe, Russian exporters will be increasingly incentivized on sending their cargoes to Asia. And given that they are well prepared for this we would not see any significant loss of supply.
Another important trend noticed is the directional share of Indonesia’s exports where India’s share of imports have increased over China’s (an expansion of close to 40-45% y/y looking at volumes in the first quarter)
Overall view for coal
Barclays Capital expects a lacklustre Q3 2011 for coal markets globally, with large stockpiles in Europe’s (Amsterdam Rotterdam and Antwerp ports), comfortable stockpiles in China and India out of the market due to the monsoons.
These stockpiles will create a buffer for prices at current levels against any unexpected supply or demand incidents.
We expect some momentum to be gained into Q4, as winter restocking needs in Europe return (UK utility stockpiles are low) and German demand will intensify in order to offset the loss of nuclear loss. This will create a good pull for coal in the Atlantic with most of the supplies likely to come from Colombia, Russia, the US and South Africa.
South African prices will have to come off from current levels if it is to price into Asia through this quarter, especially if it is to be attractive to Indian consumers. We would expect India to continue to prefer off spec coal Indonesian coal until South African prices soften, but if Indonesian off-spec becomes expensive then South African coal would climb above the preference scale. Favourable freight rates will also support this movement. We expect South African volumes into India to increase but as mentioned prices have to soften by $10. Low spec South African coal will not be exported into India in large quantities as state owned Eskom requires this supply. We did see some low spec South African cargoes that were meant for Eskom going into India but these volumes are one off in nature.
About Miswin Mahesh
Miswin Mahesh is a commodities analyst at Barclays Capital in London, specializing in the coal, freight and crude oil markets. Miswin is a graduate of the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam.
He graduated with a double masters, an MSc in Corporate Finance and Banking and a Masters degree in International Finance from the University of Amsterdam. Miswin builds his insight on international trade flows from his experience in the Middle East, India, Africa and Europe.
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Sunday, 14 August 11
SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES SHARPLY UP - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI ended positive with gains in Cape and Panamax index. The BDI was up by 1.50 pct and the cape and panamax index was up by almo ...
Saturday, 13 August 11
GMR HAS ENTERED INTO CSPA WITH GEMS TO ACQUIRE 30% STAKE
COALspot.com - GMR Infrastructure Investments (Singapore) Pte Ltd, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 12 August 11
COAL MINERS WILL ALLOW TO CONSTRUCT MINE MOUTH POWER PLANT
COALspot.com - The government is set to draft a regulation to enable construction of steam-fired power plants (PLTU) by coal mining companies for th ...
Friday, 12 August 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND HELPS LIFTING OF DRY BULK MARKET - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has recovered a small fraction of its lost ground this week, with higher returns as a result of increased capesize demand. This ...
Thursday, 11 August 11
INDO TAMBANGRAYA 1H NET PROFIT SOARS 53.09%
Coal miner PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) today reported a 53.09% jump in net profit for the first 6 months of this year on the back of higher ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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