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Wednesday, 02 February 11
HUGE TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY LOOMING FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 With the dry bulk market taking another dive yesterday, to just over 1,000 points (1,084), losing more than 2% on the day, it’s more than obvious that at least until the Chinese market reopens in a couple of weeks (when the Lunar Year Holidays end), things won’t be much different. Yesterday, it was the Supramax’s sector turn to post the most losses, with the relative Baltic Exchange’s Index, the BSI losing 2.46%.
But maybe the most fearful factor coming into play for the dry bulk market is the so talked about tonnage oversupply. According to a recent report from N.Cotzias Shipping Group, the current dry bulk fleet numbers 23,600 ships 614.3mil tons carrying capacity measured in dwt. “There are 3693 ships that are awaiting to be constructed and delivered up until 2014. These new ships will increase the tonnage in terms of carrying capacity by 29% adding 255mil tons of extra dwt. In 2011 we expect 16% or 139mil tons to be delivered and that includes all 2010 slippages. 2012 we expect another 10% or 87mil tons to fall in the active fleet while in 2013 and 2014 only 30mil tons will be added” Cotzias said.
Meanwhile, in the tanker sector, the current fleet is consisted of 12,250 ships of 516.6mil tons dwt. There are 1200 ships that are on order while their total capacity is estimated to be more than 113 mil tons and that is 18% of the current active fleet’s capacity. These new orders are expected to be delivered as follows: 8% or 53mil tons in 2011 included 2010 slippages, 6% in 2012 or 38mil tons, and the remaining 22mil tons or 4% in 2013-2014.
“In the Container market we have 4900 ships active of 159mil tons Gross Tonnage or 14.1mil TEU and we have 590 ships on order of a total of 42.2mil GT, or another 3.85mil TEU of extra carrying capacity. That is a potential 21% increase in the Container carrying ability that is set to happen until 2014. The overall increase will occur 8% or 16.2mil tons GT in 2011 included the 2010 slippages, another 8% in 2012 or an extra 17mil tons gross, 4% increase in 2013 or 7mil tons GT and only 1% in 2014 or 1.7mil tons.
It seems that all sectors are not going to suffer that dramatically from overcapacity. However it is prudent to note that a great deal of capacity increase happened in 2010 already. We had a total of more than 3000 ships reported as delivered during the past year. That is a phenomenally large number. Of these 1200 were Bulkers and General Cargo ships of 76mil tons extra dwt. 650 Tankers including Products and Chemical tankers ships of a total of 42mil tons of dwt were also launched during 2010. In addition 260 container ships of 14.8mil tons GT or 1.4mil TEU were added in 2010. We can make an accurate estimate that the Bulker and Gen. Cargo fleet grew by 14% in 2010 while the tanker fleet grew by 9% and the Container fleet by a mere less 8%” mentioned the shipbroker.
Of course, demand will also play a major role when it comes to sustaining such a large fleet of vessels. As per the World Economic outlook update that was published by the IMF just a week ago, the two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows.
Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly. Global output is projected to expand by 4½ percent in 2011 an upward revision of about ¼ percentage point relative to the October 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO). This reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the second half of 2010 as well as new policy initiatives in the United States that will boost activity this year. But downside risks to the recovery remain elevated. The most urgent requirements for robust recovery are comprehensive and rapid actions to overcome sovereign and financial troubles in the euro area and policies to redress fiscal imbalances and to repair and reform financial systems in advanced economies more generally. These need to be complemented with policies that keep overheating pressures in check and facilitate external rebalancing in key emerging economies.
“It is impossible to make any forecasts, We see that world events political or simply acts of god, alter the map or trade and tilt the economic scales that dictate world cargo movements. Suez canal blockage may disrupt shipping lines, no-one knows if such a possibility may occur however if that happens then the CGH will once more see a great deal of traffic through it with price of oil rising to the sky and possibly boosting freight rates to crazy figures. However we should stress that due to high costs imposed by the Suez Canal Authorities and the evergrowing Piracy threats in the GOA area are seriously bringing down canal traffic and as such the effects of a canal closure might prove to be a lot less detrimental on worldwide shipping than initially thought” concluded Cotzias.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 25 January 11
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUED TO TUMBLE LAST WEEK - BRS
With weather-related problems affecting the short-term outlook, and new building deliveries the longer-term picture, dry bulk rates continued to tum ...
Tuesday, 25 January 11
R-POWER TO INVEST $5BN IN INDONESIA - THE TIMES OF INDIA
The Times of India reported that, In what is being seen as one of the largest foreign investments in Indonesia, Reliance Power will infuse $5 billio ...
Monday, 24 January 11
GOVT PROMISES COAL FOR PLN DESPITE PRICE SPIKES - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the government says state electricity company PT PLN will receive enough coal to fire its power plants, despite pric ...
Monday, 24 January 11
DRY BULK MARKETS DOWNTURN SEES NO RELIEF - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept falling for yet another week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing an additional 4.79 ...
Sunday, 23 January 11
THE AVERAGE CHARTER RATE FOR CAPE SIZE VESSELS WAS AT $ 8,859 PD ALMOST CLOSE TO 2008 LOWS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continues to drop and saw a drop of about 5 pct this week closing at 1,370 points. “ In May 2010 the BDI touched ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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